Follow the money

Fund Flows

Q: Are PE distributions falling?

Yes. DPI (distributions to paid-in capital) fell from about 25% to 9% — a decade low. For every dollar committed to 2018–2021 vintages, LPs received roughly 10–30 cents back.

Q: How fast has private credit grown?

Private credit AUM grew from about $200 billion to $2 trillion in 15 years (10x). BDC AUM grew from $127 billion to $503 billion in five years (4x). PE fundraising rose from $400 billion to $841 billion between 2015 and 2023.

Capital keeps flowing in even as quality deteriorates — the divergence is the story.

The short answer

Money in is at record highs while money out has collapsed. PE fundraising rose $400B→$841B and private credit AUM 10x'd to $2T, yet exits fell from 1,210 to 323 and DPI hit a decade-low 9%. For every dollar committed to 2018–2021 vintages, LPs got back roughly 10–30 cents. All returns below are self-reported GP marks, not audited or marked-to-market.

Money in vs. quality out

Money flowing in

PE fundraising $400B → $841B (2015–2023)
Private credit AUM $200B → $2T (10x in 15 years)
BDC AUM $127B → $503B (4x in 5 years)
Insurance allocations 7% → 21% of private AUM

Quality deteriorating

Exits collapsed 1,210 → 323 (2021–2023)
PIK rate 5% → 12.5%
Default rate 1.5% → 6.4% shadow
DPI 25% → 9% (decade low)

Vintage returns (self-reported GP marks)

By vintage year — IRR, multiple, DPI
Vintage	IRR	Multiple	DPI
2009	+18.5%	2.10x	1.80x
2015	+12%	1.55x	0.90x
2018	+10.5%	1.40x	0.50x
2020	+6.5%	1.20x	0.20x
2021	+3%	1.10x	0.10x
2022 (Thoma Bravo XV)	−1.6%	0.99x	0.05x

Fund report cards (selected)

Selected funds — IRR, multiple, DPI (self-reported)
Fund	Sponsor / Vintage	IRR	Mult.	DPI
Apollo Fund IX	Apollo / 2017	+19.5%	1.85x	1.20x
KKR Americas XII	KKR / 2017	+16.8%	1.70x	0.90x
Blackstone CP VIII	Blackstone / 2019	+12.5%	1.45x	0.40x
Silver Lake Partners VI	Silver Lake / 2020	+9.5%	1.35x	0.20x
Hellman & Friedman X	H&F / 2021	+4.5%	1.15x	0.10x
Thoma Bravo Fund XV	Thoma Bravo / 2022	−1.6%	0.99x	0.05x
Insight Partners Fund XII	Insight / 2021	−2.29%	1.00x	0.04x

The live page carries 18 fund report cards. For every dollar committed to 2018–2021 vintages, LPs received roughly 10–30 cents back.

Frequently asked questions

Are PE distributions falling?

Yes. DPI fell from ~25% to 9% — a decade low. 2018–2021 vintages returned roughly 10–30 cents per committed dollar.

How fast has private credit grown?

PC AUM grew ~10x ($200B→$2T) in 15 years; BDC AUM 4x ($127B→$503B) in five years; PE fundraising $400B→$841B (2015–2023).